Project Overview
The Goal:
Rapid, equitable, transformational revitalization in the three neighborhood clusters around the West Baltimore MARC Station.
(The three neighborhood clusters - what we’re calling the “Key Focus Area” or KFA- are defined by the Baltimore City Dept of Planning as Sandtown-Winchester Harlem Park, Greater Rosemont and Southwest Baltimore.)
The Project Components:
Transportation
Economic Development
Affordable Housing Creation and Preservation
(Click here for the a deeper dive in the 90-page, fully-footnoted Roadmap Report)
The Most Critical Catalysts:
1. Pilot MARC Express Service - to begin to diversify income levels in the Key Focus Area. A pilot service of four express trains each way in the morning, and four each way in the afternoon would:
a) allow West Baltimore to be marketed as equally-accessible (by time) to Washington’s Union Station as Bethesda and Arlington are on the DC Metro - an astounding level of commutability
b) allow MARC to gather data on usage and demand for a full MARC Express Service (one train per hour, each way, every workday, 6am-8pm)
c) finally create a true West Baltimore - and equity - constituency for the major B&P Tunnel project
We know that express trains capable of these trips times could be run with existing MARC-owned equipment on existing Penn Line tracks. And further, we believe that windows exist in the current Amtrak (which owns the Penn Line) and MARC schedules to slot in this service today. The only hurdles now are political - at the state and federal levels, with MARC and Amtrak respectively.
2. Neighborhood Homes Investment Act (NHIA) - a federal bill, co-introduced by Maryland Senator Cardin, designed to incentivize renovation of - and creation of affordable housing with - vacant properties. With 6000 vacant properties in the Key Focus Area currently unprofitable to renovate, this subsidy, when coupled with Maryland bill HB1239/SB0859 (passed in 2021 - thank you Delegate Lierman and Senator Hayes) represents perhaps the only reasonable way forward to address the dual enormous challenges of vacant houses and affordable housing - to do so with a (subsidized) free market approach. The federal bill is still in committee however. If renovating vacants (and selling them as affordable housing - as is required by the legislation) were to become profitable, then that alone may be a game-changer for West Baltimore, and for its long-marginalized communities and families.
3. A New Modern, Multi-Modal, Centerpiece West Baltimore MARC Station - to anchor a Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) center for the Key Focus Area. The incremental cost of building a more substantial new MARC station than the simple platform renovation that is currently planned as part of the B&P Tunnel track realignment, would be approximately $15-20 million. Construction is years away, but planning is happening now, and West Baltimore needs a seat at that planning table to emphasize how important it is for us to thing big, think multi-modal, and think critical centerpiece structure, not just for MARC, but for West Baltimore.
A marquis, higher capacity, showpiece station would anchor and help spark development of a new TOD center in that location, which would represent an entirely new way of thinking about West Baltimore’s relationship to Washington - as a gateway to that powerful economic center. But it would also be nothing short of a keystone development for West Baltimore itself - finally, truly and completely knitting together, with its commercial center and network of pedestrian bridges, the neighborhoods north and south of Route 40.
Coupled with a reimagined “Highway to Nowhere” bookending the eastern edge of the TOD district, and a restarted Red Line project, the station and TOD center, and the neighborhoods around them, would be Baltimore’s next great revitalization success story - and critically, they wouldn’t be anywhere near the waterfront.
(All images are conceptual references taken from local developments, and meant to indicate stylistic possibilities for the available parcels.)
The Economic Effect:
Transformation
Plain and simple. The economic baselines are so low in West Baltimore we could easily be talking about 100% growth in a decade, or even half a decade. We did several economic studies examining from different perspectives what that growth could reasonably look like, and what would be the primary manifestations of it. For the sake of simplicity, we settled on just three statistics to focus on for growth and savings potential (see below). These costs are at least partly rooted in poverty we believe, and therefore would be affected by a shift toward greater economic diversity.
Dramatic movement in these costs would be reasonably expected to occur in even just a moderate revitalization scenario. And those incremental movements could translate into hundreds of millions of dollars annually in increased revenue and savings for city and state budgets - as much or even more than the contribution to city and state tax coffers projected, for instance, at the Port Covington site that is subsidized with $1.1 billion in federal, state and city taxpayer assistance. That controversial, and now scaled-back Port Covington development isn’t expected to be at “full development” for another two decades from now (if ever), whereas HUB West Baltimore could be revitalized and humming within a decade, according to our projections.
Here’s an example of just one of those increased revenue streams - real estate taxes - and how a modest revitalization scenario could quickly turn into real transformational dollars for city and state governments:
But what’s going to drive those increases in property values beyond just better access to Washington from Baltimore and vice-versa? The historic differential in house prices between the two cities, as well as the need for future affordable housing in the region near high-capacity transit.
In short, revitalization in West Baltimore could quickly become an economic driver not just for the city, but for the state overall - in much the same way that Brooklyn, NY went from large-scale disinvestment in the 1990s to a tax-generating machine, when it discovered the value that lies in its proximity to Manhattan. Such a transformation could easily happen here in West Baltimore, the time for it is now, and it could be realized with just the relatively tiniest of taxpayer outlays.
The Affordable Housing Plan
The Goal: facilitate the preservation of at least 40% (and perhaps even as much as 50%) of existing residents in the Key Focus Area for a generation (20-25 years at least).
How do you hit those numbers in a rapidly appreciating real estate environment? You use a suite of powerful, yet tried-and-true tools, discussed below. But before we get to those tools, a moment to reflect: that number should not be glossed over. If the City of Baltimore were able to rapidly revitalize a dramatically and decadenally disinvested area such as our Key Focus Area and still realize this lofty level of affordable housing preservation and creation, it would represent nothing short of an entirely new model of economic development for the nation - one firmly rooted in the first principles of equity, economic science and righting historic wrongs.
It’s Social Sciences 101 that neighborhoods of wide economic diversity are the most successful at lifting lower income families and children out of poverty. Truly diversifying the income profile of the KFA (not just gentrifying it into a wealthy enclave) could have generational effects on thousands of West Baltimore families and children. The opportunity for poverty eradication through a managed and subsidized (MLK) free market is massive.
So again, how do we do that? Relentlessly, over time, with a suite of tools:
What would the timing of affordable housing preservation and creation look like?
Key Affordable Housing Tools
1. Property Tax Grandfathering (for existing residents on “Day 1”)
The immediate preservation of 30% of existing residents in the Key Focus Area is no farther away than some simple legislation. Limits on property tax increases are common in many municipalities for certain groups, such as the elderly, disabled or veterans. The home valuation for tax purposes is typically kept at or near a base level, or allowed to increase at some small increment like 1% per year on that base level, often for a number of years, or even decades. Why is that important?
Well, functionally, the only thing that “gentrifies out” existing homeowners is property tax increases in a rising valuation environment. Limits on increases for existing residents on “Day 1” would alter that dynamic entirely, immediately, and cost-effectively, and preserve the ability for 30% of the existing residents - the current owner-occupiers - to remain in their homes in the KFA in perpetuity, regardless of what happens with house prices. Property tax grandfathering is, simply put, a tremendously powerful tool that is underutilized in affordable housing for lack of a powerful constituency - and a tool that is tailor-made for affordable housing preservation in West Baltimore.
2. Vacant Properties (the intelligent disposal of)
The 6000 vacant properties in the Key Focus Area represent perhaps the biggest challenge to economic development, but also the greatest opportunity for creation of affordable housing. This number of cheaply-available properties in such proximity to one of the country’s most powerful economic engines may be unique in America. The most critical aspect of converting Baltimore’s vacants to affordable housing is discussed above - the Cardin Neighborhood Homes Investment Act. Why is it critical? Because it would finally bring the (subsidized) free market to bear on a problem that has never been able to be successfully addressed by the public or foundation sectors.
But there’s another equally key item that needs to be addressed - the broken Baltimore City tax sale system.
Baltimore City has come under fire recently for favoring community groups over developers in tax sales. But if there’s any hope of keeping property speculators (who have crushed several cycles of economic green shoots in the KFA over the last few decades) at bay, it’s in doing that very thing which may have been the source of the controversy - i.e. not awarding property tax auctions to the highest bidder, but instead working with community groups to intelligently identify what is needed, and how to best ensure renovation of those properties.
The Dollar House program of the 1980s - which required a certain level of investment in a property in a certain amount of time - is one successful model. But there are others as well. The underlying rationale, however, should always be that vacant properties should be evaluated in the same way that larger parcels are - for the best developer, with the greatest chance of completing the development, and the most likely probability of providing real tangible benefits for the community, such as affordable housing.
Again though, it all starts with the city getting control of a tax sale system for vacant and tax-delinquent properties that everyone agrees is not being run in the best interest of city neighborhoods and communities. If all of these vacant properties were to come online as affordable housing, instead of ending laying fallow for years, or worse, as vacant lots gap-toothing formerly seamless blocks - that outcome, together with property tax increase limits for existing homeowners, would mean that it wouldn’t matter anymore how far prices rose in other parcels. An affordable housing, existing resident retention rate of more than 50% would have been achieved. And what’s more - a new national model for economic development will have been established.
To dive more deeply into these tools and others, please see Section 7 of the Roadmap Report.
FAQs
What are we talking about here? West Baltimore or trains?
Both. We want to use 30-minute express train service to and from Washington to produce transformational change in West Baltimore, and supercharge growth at BWI.
Why does West Baltimore need “transformational” change?
West Baltimore, the former home of Freddie Gray, has been plagued by every form of crushing poverty for at least a half-century. Even in recent times, when virtually every other part of the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area has experienced double-digit growth, West Baltimore may have actually gotten even more destitute. But now, for the first time in 50 years, there’s a chance for fundamental change, and it’s all rooted in a once-in-a-lifetime confluence of DC house prices and West Baltimore’s proximity to that job center.
Okay, so how does that change happen?
That’s where the trains come in.
House prices are so high now in Washington, DC, that families with one, and often two, six-figure incomes can’t afford to consider single-family houses - not downtown, not anywhere in DC. They want to live and raise kids in a vibrant, green, urban center, yet they love their well-paid and fulfilling jobs in DC and don’t want to give them up. Enter the West Baltimore express. If you tell those folks - of which there are literally thousands - that they can live in West Baltimore, with its gorgeous housing stock, and be in Union Station in the same time it take to ride the Washington metro from Bethesda to Union Station, then given West Baltimore’s jaw-dropping affordability, and that DC cohort’s enthusiasm for the challenge of locating in - and lifting up - struggling inner-core neighborhoods, that part of Baltimore transforms in a “DC minute”. In as little as five years, you might not even recognize it.
The exact same thing has happened to similar neighborhoods all over Washington, and happened that fast. And now, with virtually no neighborhoods left in DC that aren’t out of reach for the middle-class, and the numbers of these priced-out Washingtonians continuing to grow every day, with no end in sight, West Baltimore can finally make a legitimate play for these cashed-up DC families. But to make that play, it’s going to take regular 30-minute-trip express service from the West Baltimore station to Union Station. “30 minutes” is the key number that renders West Baltimore truly, finally “accessible” in the eyes of those potential home-owners.
So while we’re talking about West Baltimore with this plan, we’re also talking about trains.
Wait, but isn’t there already express MARC trains between Baltimore and Washington?
MARC trains… yes. Express trains… most definitely no. MARC runs only two “express” trains from Washington in the afternoon, but in a best-case scenario they arrive at the West Baltimore station in around 40 minutes. That’s not below the key 30-minute trip threshold that allows West Baltimore to be marketed as “accessible” to DC house-hunting families. And by the way, that’s just two “express” trains the whole day (and they’re always standing-room only). Most of the other trains to and from DC are 50 minutes or more. To DC homebuyers, that does not constitute an “express” service, nor “accessibility”. Ultimately, with this service, we’d want to end up with 14 true “express” trains each way, every work day. That’s what BWTRG’s plan lays out, and THAT would be transformational for West Baltimore.
Why focus on West Baltimore instead of other parts of the city, like the harbor or even Station North?
Proximity, accessibility, housing stock, affordability and potential.
Proximity: West Baltimore is the first MARC stop in Baltimore on the Penn line, so it’s the closest to Washington - a full 8 to 12 minutes closer than Baltimore Penn Station. That matters when you’re trying to nail down 30-minute trips.
Accessibility: The location of the West Baltimore station is directly in the middle of the Western part of the city, with excellent walking, public transportation and car access from neighborhoods near and far.
Housing Stock: The buildings and warehouses are nearly all gem examples of the great North Atlantic tradition that’s prevailed since the 17th century - the same housing stock and styles that cover not just Washington, but Boston, New York, London, Edinburgh, Amsterdam and more. Those places - and most others in the North Atlantic tradition - have nearly all been renovated and priced accordingly. But West Baltimore remains as perhaps the last great swathe of neighborhoods in this revered tradition - and the last great opportunity for affordable housing of this style.
Affordability: The numbers are nothing short of jaw-dropping. The average house price in the neighborhoods closest to the West Baltimore station range from $35 to $50 thousand for a single-family house. Meanwhile, in downtown DC for instance, similar housing stock often has prices of more than a million dollars. 30 minutes makes a world of difference.
Potential: The potential is limitless. These neighborhoods, once some of Baltimore’s - and the country’s - finest, are laid out in quiet, orderly grids, surrounding leafy squares, shopping streets and small, quintessentially-Baltimore, neighborhood central markets. Moreover, there are numerous parcels and buildings directly adjacent to the West Baltimore station that are ripe for larger DC-style transit-oriented development. That micro-area in particular, coupled with many nearby blocks that, post demolition, are now empty lots, is a virtual blank canvas for bigger development projects with direct ultra-convenient access to key hyper-transit. Here in West Baltimore, it’s not only possible to suggest that you could do development the way that enlightened planners strive for today - in walkable communities centered around public transportation. But rather it’s literally baked into the DNA of the original, and still existing, layouts of these neighborhoods.
Is it actually possible for MARC trains to make that trip in 30 minutes?
Yes. If you focus on the West Baltimore station rather than Baltimore Penn, Acela trains do it now in 27 minutes with a stop at BWI (but they don’t stop in West Baltimore). Similarly, MARC trains could do it tomorrow on existing equipment and existing rails. That’s part of the engineering that BWTRG has confirmed and woven in to the West Baltimore Project. Give us a call and lets chat about how this would work.
It can’t be that easy. What’s the trick?
No trick - again just a moderately complicated puzzle of leasing, scheduling and engineering moves, some that have already largely been sketched out by Amtrak and MARC, but all that have now been gathered by BWTRG into the larger contextual framework of our “West Baltimore Project”. It’s a bigger, more holistic way of thinking about - and justifying economically - transportation infrastructure upgrades and community development. The engineering side of our plan was formulated in consultation with former and current MARC and Amtrak directors, planners and other personnel. Amtrak is looking for motivated state partners for already-approved capacity-building projects, and this plan now gives a bold, multi-faceted, broader economic justification for these and other infrastructure and scheduling upgrades. Our plan covers engineering, economics, political positioning and marketing, as well as neighborhood inclusion, P3 (public-private partnership) station development, and long-term TOD (transportation-oriented development) . While there are short term (<3 years), medium-term (>3-5 years), and long-term (>5 years) components to the BWTRG plan, marketing and messaging could get started tomorrow - and the “proof-of-concept” trains not long after.
How much is it going to cost?
Initially, for a 3-year “proof-of-concept” phase, just whatever it takes in operating and leasing costs to run two, or maybe three, extra MARC trains sets. Then, in that three to five-year window, as service is ramped up, some infrastructure investments will need to be made at the BWI station on the Penn Line. There’s a fully-state and environmentally-approved plan for those key pieces of long-deferred maintenance to be undertaken. The latest projections are in the $275 million range for those - but again, that’s primarily for key long-deferred upgrades to Amtrak’s marquis Northeast Corridor (NEC) lines that desperately need to be done anyway. There will of course be marketing costs as well to sell the service, at least initially. Long-term, we’ll be looking for TOD P3 partners to help foot the bill for putting the final 10-year infrastructure pieces in place.
Okay, so what’s the real upside?
The upside is a tremendous legacy-building opportunity for every constituency involved in this plan:
Politically: For the elected leader who spearheads this plan, it’s huge. Ultimately, they’ll end up being the face of potentially the greatest single economic revitalization to take place in Baltimore since Mayor Schaefer’s inner harbor renaissance - and maybe ever.
Fiscally: For the State of Maryland, the upside is also enormous. This is a bold plan to turn one of the greatest drains of funding and energy in the state into a dynamic engine of tax revenue generation. Moreover, it’s change on the cheap. No $10 billion Maglev needed - rather just smart project planning, marketing and execution, for a fraction of the cost of the recently-cancelled Baltimore Red Line. For potential, think Brooklyn, NY 1990 vs Brooklyn, NY 2010 - it’s night and day, both in neighborhood vitality and safety, as well as in tax returns. (And in truth, West Baltimore, with this express service, would be even closer to DC than most of Brooklyn is to Midtown Manhattan.)
Regionally: For BWI and the areas around it, as mentioned before, this express train could convincingly allow the airport to finally argue that it’s more accessible to the eastern part of Washington - including Capitol Hill - than even Reagan National. And of course, local folks who use the BWI MARC station would be 24 minutes from Washington - a true “inside-the-beltway” commute that would ultimately drive considerable growth throughout the BWI district and beyond.
Locally: For the families, churches and other community pillars of West Baltimore, the upside is similarly massive. After nearly a half-century of crushing poverty, crippling crime and widespread (and expensive) incarceration, this could be the one initiative that finally breaks the cycle. Forget $130 million non-profit ventures with no real middle-class constituency. Instead, think of the “animal spirits” of capitalism powering a deeply-rooted, market-driven, organic exercise in community-building, one that could uplift one of the most beautiful, yet neglected, parts of any city on either side of the North Atlantic. We’ve got a plan to ensure that any change that happens in the neighborhood first benefits the folks who currently live and own housing there. It’s a new model of development - one that benefits existing communities and lifts all boats. Give us a call and let’s chat about how it would work.